The CEO of the company behind the analysis said that although for Poland the model predicts “a milder epidemic than western and southern Europe […] For this to happen, a social effort is needed to comply with the introduced restrictions and limitations.”
The coronavirus epidemic will certainly cut the original 3.7 percent GDP growth that Poland planned to reach in 2020, and a 2 pct economic expansion should be seen as a very good result, Finance Minister Tadeusz Kościński said in a comment for PAP on Friday.
Global ratings agency Fitch, in its report on Thursday, stated that it had cut the GDP growth forecast for Poland to 1.8 percent in 2020 from the previously expected 3.3 percent.
The Polish Development Ministry expects industrial production to go down by around 5 percent year on year in March 2020, reads a ministry communique issued on Thursday.
Poland’s GDP growth will likely slow down to slightly less than 2 percent, but no recession is envisaged this year, President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Adam Glapiński told a Wednesday press conference.
Polish Economic Institute analysts fear that, in a pessimistic scenario, the coronovirus epidemic will lower Poland's economic growth in 2020 by 1.3 percentage point to around 2 percent.
Stats from the EU also predict that the population will age while the number of people in their 30s could more than halve.
Global ratings agency Fitch has raised its GDP growth forecast for Poland to 4.2 percent in 2019 from the previously expected 4.0 percent.
Poland's economy could expand by as much 4.6 percent in 2019, rather than the 4.2 percent forecast before, analysts of Poland's largest lender by assets PKO BP wrote in their latest quarterly report.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has upgraded Poland's economic growth forecast to 4.2 percent in 2019 from 4.0 percent expected earlier.