Unemployment to stay stable, rising in new year, says think-tank

Poland's unemployment rate should fluctuate only slightly until November but may rise from the current 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent at the start of 2024, a government-affiliated economic think-tank said on Monday, commenting on August's unemployment figures.

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported on Monday that unemployment in August 2023 remained unchanged from July at 5.0 percent.

"We expect a slight fluctuation in the unemployment rate until November," the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) wrote in a commentary. "In September, it will continue to stay at the level of 5.0 percent. At the start of the new year it will rise to about 5.5 percent, mostly due to seasonal factors. In 2024, the unemployment rate will remain at a level close to this year's."

PIE drew attention to the fact that the number of registered unemployed, reported by GUS on Monday at 782,500 in August, has been systematically falling in most age groups. However, the economic slowdown means that it is harder for people entering the labour market to start a career, PIE said. The number of unemployed people under 30 is similar to last year's figure, when unemployment mostly affected the 30-50-year age group.

The think-tank noted that labour offices received 95,000 new job offers in August, which was 2.3 percent fewer than a year earlier, though the drop affected mainly public-sector employment.

PIE highlighted, however, that despite the slowdown, the number of job offers was still around 45 percent higher than in 2012.

"As a result, the consequences for the labour market of weaker economic growth will be much less severe than during the credit crisis in the euro zone," PIE wrote.