S&P lowers 2022 growth forecast for Poland

Justin Lane/PAP/EPA

S&P Global Ratings revised down Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 5 percent, from its previous estimate of 5.3 percent.

The agency, however, raised its 2021 GDP forecast for Poland from the 5.1 percent it predicted in September to 5.2 percent.

According to S&P’s latest report, in 2023 Poland's GDP will grow by 3.3 percent.

When it comes to the inflation rate, S&P expects it to come in at 5.1 percent next year, before falling to 2.9 percent in 2023.

Latest figures on Poland's growth were published also by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The organisation projects that Poland's GDP will grow by 5.2 percent in 2022, which is 0.2 percentage point more than estimated by S&P.

Both OECD and S&P agree that in 2023 the Polish GDP growth rate will lower to 3.3 percent. The OECD, however, expects a much higher inflation rate in Poland. Its estimate for 2022 stands at 6.2 percent and 3.5 percent in 2023.

Karen Vartapetov, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, said during a webinar on Tuesday that there is "a relatively long way to go" before Poland’s strained relations with the EU might affect its rating. The agency still counts on a compromise between the EU and Poland, and sees no risks for the country's rating at the moment.

Among the top three rating agencies, Poland enjoys the highest rating from Moody's (A2). Fitch and S&P have issued A- credit rating for Poland, with a stable outlook.