Q1 GDP may be higher than expected - Goldman Sachs

Polish GDP in the first quarter of 2021 may be higher than expected due to better-than-expected growth data on industrial production and retail trade, Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts have said.

According to estimates by the bank's analysts, economic growth in Poland in the first quarter may be a positive surprise.

"The opinion of GS experts is influenced by higher-than-expected growth in industrial production and retail trade (at the level of about 3 percent)," Goldman Sachs wrote in a commentary released on Friday. "In the assessment of GS analysts, comparing these data with the GDP consensus of 1 percent suggests that Poland's GDP in the first quarter of 2021 may be higher than expected."

Goldman Sachs also drew attention to the resilience of the region's economies as well as their better adaptation to the prevailing conditions and restrictions compared to the situation last year. The possible good result would have a significant influence on GDP forecasts for the whole of 2021.

Data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that real GDP fell in 2020 by 2.7 percent. According to the latest estimates of the Institute of Forecasts and Economic Analyses (IPAG), in Q1 of this year the Polish economy shrank by 2.3 percent.

GUS is expected to issue a so-called flash GDP estimate for Q1 2021 next Friday.