Poland’s population to shrink by 2026

Adam Warżawa/PAP

Poland’s population will fall to 37.9 million in 2026 from its current 38.3 million, according to Finance Ministry projections.

In its analysis of the macroeconomic factors that would shape the future income of the Social Security Fund (FUS), the Ministry of Finance has assumed an increase in fertility rate from 1.38 in 2021 to 1.41 in 2026.

Nevertheless, the ministry’s analysts see the country’s population shrinking by under a million people.

They noticed that the post-working age population, consisting of men aged 65 years and more and women aged 60 years and over, will grow by almost 0.7 million while the working age population will decrease by over 0.7 million.

"In 2021, for every 1,000 people of working age there are 390 people of post-working age and 698 people of non-working age (children and youth – PAP). In 2026, however, there will be 434 people of post-working age and 737 people of non-working age per 1,000 people of working age," the analysts concluded.