Poland's GDP to fall by 5.4 pct in 2020 - central bank

Leszek Szymański/PAP

Poland's economic growth will decline by 5.4 percent in 2020 and will rebound by 4.9 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022, while the CPI inflation will remain high, at 3.3 percent this year, the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) central projection shows.

In 2021, the country's CPI will shrink to 1.5 percent and will slightly grow to 2.1 percent in 2022. Poland's core inflation will reach 3.4 percent in 2020, 1.5 percent in 2021 and 2.1 percent in 2022, according to the central bank.

In quarterly terms, the GDP is seen to have declined by 10.6 percent in the second quarter of 2020 and is expected to contract further in the third and fourth quarters, by 7.7 and 5.3 percent, respectively, due to the coronavirus epidemic.

Next year will also start with a quarterly decline of 4.2 percent in the first three months, with the second quarter being the first positive one, with growth at 10.5 percent.

Poland's exports and imports will gather pace from the third quarter of this year amid a broader revival in the global economy, the NBP also said.

The expected decline in inflation will be fuelled by limited demand, an elevated unemployment rate and a moderate wage growth pace, as well as low inflation in Poland's economic environment and low prices of energy commodities on global markets, according to the central bank.