Poland’s GDP likely to decline q/q in Q2, recover in H2 – dep fin min

Skiba said he still believed the economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year, resulting in a positive growth rate for the whole year. Wojciech Olkuśnik/PAP

According to a baseline scenario, Poland’s GDP will decline q/q in the second quarter of 2020 without a y/y decline, but the scenario of a y/y decline cannot be fully ruled out, Deputy Finance Minister Leszek Skiba told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna on Monday.

He said he still believed the economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year, resulting in a positive growth rate for the whole year.

"It is difficult to have a responsible forecast in a situation which depends of how long the economy will remain in quarantine, on a lack of consumer demand and broken global supply chains," Skiba said. "However, a rebound should be expected in the third and fourth quarters and, if this happens, the entire year will be in the black," he added.

According to Skiba, budget savings should amount to around PLN 10 billion (EUR 2.2 bln).

"The sector is in a good financial situation, capital requirements are being met from surplus and (…) NBP (central bank – PAP) is providing banks with liquidity,” he also said.