PKO BP bank's team best forecaster according to Consensus Economics

The economic research team of Poland's biggest bank PKO BP has topped the ranking of economic forecasters for 2017 as prepared by the UK-based survey organisation Consensus Economics, the bank said in a statement.

Consensus Economics gathers macroeconomic forecasts from more than 700 economists across the world.

"Forecasts of annual GDP and annual average inflation, prepared monthly for 24 months starting from January 2016, were taken into account in the list that summed up the year 2017. Both Polish and foreign institutions took part in the competition, including BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, ING, Moody’s, BZ WBK, Pekao, Societe Generale and UBS," the bank said in its statement.

The lender also recalled that recently it had won second place in a competition of quarterly macroeconomic forecasts for 2017 - a contest organised by Polish dailies Gazeta Gieldy Parkiet and Rzeczpospolita.

"The list includes more than 40 entities, and PKO Bank Polski achieved the best result among financial institutions. Its good performance in the general ranking results among other things from the highest place in the investment forecast ranking (second year in a row) and a top place in inflation forecasts," the bank went on to say.

The Gazeta Gieldy Parkiet ranking put PKO BP in top position for monthly macroeconomic forecasts in 2017. The bank is one of just two institutions that were in the first five of this ranking for the third consecutive year.

"Every ranking is difficult and demanding in some way, there are also different competitors. We managed to win in each of them. We did well in monthly forecasts, which are important for the market, such as inflation or unemployment data. We also managed to prepare accurate forecasts of quarterly indicators a year in advance and annual results two years in advance," Piotr Bujak, head of the bank's winning team, told PAP.

The "key to success" is a skillful combination of econometric models with various estimates of what is going on in the Polish and global economies as well as extensive knowledge of economic processes, with support from intuition and experience," he said, adding that the team was also crucial to success. "A team that holds discussions, promotes cooperation and is involved," Bujak said.

Analytical reports prepared by PKO BP experts can be accessed via the bank's Research Centre and at the following Twitter accounts: @Analizy_PKOBP (Polish) and @PKO_Research (English).

The statement also noted that PKO BP "is an undisputed leader of the Polish banking sector," with a consolidated net profit of PLN 3.1 bln (EUR 731 mln) in 2017, the highest result in the Polish banking sector, while the bank's assets stand at nearly PLN 300 bln (EUR 71 bln).