New poll shows opposition party would win general election

Tomasz Gzell/PAP

The centrist Civic Coalition (KO), Poland's main opposition party, would win the vote by a narrow margin over the ruling conservative party Law and Justice (PiS), a Kantar Public poll has shown.

If the elections were held in mid-July, KO would take 27 percent of votes, while PiS would place second on 26 percent.

The only other parties to cross the parliamentary threshold would be the grassroots conservative party Poland 2050 (8 pct), The Left (8 pct), the hard-right Confederation (6 pct) and the agrarian Polish People's Party (PSL) on 5 percent.

Kantar points out that, compared to June, the following changes were recorded: an increase in support for the Civic Coalition (by 4 percentage points), Confederation (by 2 percentage points), PSL-Polish Coalition (by 1 percentage point). Both Law and Justice (PiS) and Poland 2050 lost support, by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

Of the total number of people who announced their intention to vote, 15 percent were undecided about who they would vote for (a drop of 4 pps).

Kantar also noted a 69 pct voter turnout. Thirty-four percent stated they would definitely vote, while 35 percent said they would most probably vote. Twenty percent of respondents held the opposite view, with 13 percent stating that they would probably not cast their vote, and 7 percent decisively stating that they would not vote. Eleven percent were undecided as to whether they would vote.

The Kantar Public survey was conducted on July 15-20, 2022 on a representative sample of 985 adult Polish residents using the computer-assisted direct interviews (CAPI) method.