Gov't assumes weaker GDP growth for 2023

Poland's registered unemployment is expected to continue to fall and will reach 5.1 percent at the end of this year and will remain unchanged in 2023. Beate Schleep/PAP

Poland's economic growth will weaken to 3.2 percent in 2023 from the 3.8 percent expected this year, while inflation will ease from this year's 9.1 percent to 7.8 percent in 2023, the government has assumed in budget guidelines.


"Short-term prospects for the Polish economy are highly uncertain owing to the geopolitical situation (Russia's aggression against Ukraine), turbulence in global production chains (China's return to lockdown policy), high commodity prices and the economic condition of (Poland's - PAP) main partners," the government's press service, CIR, said in a press release on Tuesday.

"As a result of this, we expect that, despite positive economic performance in the first months of 2022, GDP growth will reach 3.8 percent in the whole of 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023," CIR continued.

"We also expect that inflation will reach 9.1 percent on average in 2022 and will decline to 7.8 percent in 2023," CIR said, while making a reservation that the figures may change "depending on the geopolitical situation."

Prices should show signs of slowing down by the third and fourth quarters of 2022 on the back of a tighter monetary policy and expected stabilisation of energy prices, according to the government.

Poland's registered unemployment is expected to continue to fall and will reach 5.1 percent at the end of this year and will remain unchanged in 2023.

Average wage growth will reach 10.2 percent this year and 9.6 percent next year. The government has provisioned pay hikes in 2023 for the public sector of 7.8 percent.

Private consumption is expected to rise by 5.9 percent in real terms in 2022.

According to the finance minister, Magdalena Rzeczkowska, the guidelines can still be amended when data for the first two quarters of 2022 become available.

The government has until September 30 to file the final draft of the budget law with the lower house of parliament.