Goldman Sachs raises inflation forecast for Poland

Goldman Sachs has raised Poland's 2022 inflation forecast from 3 percent to 3.7 percent, largely due to a sharp increase in wholesale gas and electricity prices, the bank announced on Tuesday.

Another reason for the raised forecast are signals that domestic supply is struggling to keep up with growing demand, Goldman Sachs said.

The bank also postponed the expected date of the first interest rate hike by the NBP, the central bank of Poland, from Q3 2022 to Q1 2022. Goldman Sachs experts said interest rates could already go up this November, but noted that this was improbable in view of financial challenges connected with the expected fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer prices in Poland in August 2021 rose by 5.5 percent year on year and 0.3 percent month on month.

The Polish finance ministry expects annual inflation in 2021 to be at the level of 4.3 percent.