GDP to rise by 4.8 percent this year says think tank

Poland’s GDP will increase by 4.8 percent in 2022 and by 3.5 percent in 2023, while inflation will peak at 15.8 percent in August, according to a leading economic think tank.

Economists at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) believe that the Polish economy, in general, is expected to experience a "slight slowdown."

In 2022, GDP growth will rise by 4.8 percent, mainly due to industrial activity and the additional demand created by refugees from Ukraine.

But in the second half of the year and in 2023, economic growth will fluctuate at around 2.4-3.6 percent, mainly due to rising commodity prices, a shortage of goods, weakening exports and falling private investment.

In turn, positive stimuli will come from an increase in public investment owing to the National Recovery Plan and this will translate into a rise of 1 percentage point in GDP, in 2023.

In the opinion of the experts, the greatest challenge to the economy in the next two years will be high inflation which will continue to be fuelled by increases in food and energy prices.

Core inflation, which outlines the prices of processed goods and services, will also remain high.

Next year, inflation is expected to slow down slightly and come to 8.6 percent. "A clear drop in the level of inflation will not take place until the turn of 2023 and 2024, at the latest," the analysts said.

The analysts also forecasted that average inflation would reach 13.1 percent this year, and peak at 15.8 percent in August. They added that inflation, in 2023, would fall to an average of 8.6 percent and, in 2024, would be at around 4.5 percent.