GDP growth in Q2 above 9 pct y/y - economic institute

Poland's GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 is expected to top 9 percent year on year, after a 1-percent drop in the first quarter, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) said on Tuesday.

The institute said in its ‘Macro-Economic Monthly’ that a slump in GDP in January, February and March proved 1 to be percent smaller than predicted, which improved the chances of a recovery in the second quarter.

"The second quarter will see a significant rebound, with the increase exceeding 9 percent year on year," said the report

The institute wrote that low investment remained a hindrance to growth, with exports remaining the main driving force of the economy.

According to PIE analysts, delays in reviving the consumer market will be balanced by industrial growth. They noted, however, that the retail market saw a 15-percent rise in March, and could rise to 25 percent in April.

PIE confirmed that the investment market was reviving slowly, closing the first quarter with a 7.8 percent drop year on year. According to the institute, the second-quarter investment figures should be close to those seen at the peak of the pandemic.

The institute also noted a slump of over 10 percent in construction, but said the sector could pick up gradually in the coming months.

Among the more prosperous branches is the motor industry, with auto exports expected to rise over 2 percent in the second quarter, PIE stated.