Fitch confirms Poland's rating at A- with stable outlook
The Fitch rating agency has affirmed Poland's rating at A- with a stable outlook, the agency said in a Friday statement.
"Poland's 'A-' rating reflects its diversified economy with a track record of stable growth and sound policy framework, coupled with EU membership," Fitch said. "These are balanced against lower GDP per capita and relatively high (albeit declining) net external debt compared with the 'A' category peers," the statement read.
Fitch envisages the general government deficit to reach 8.2 percent of GDP in 2020 and then ease to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021 and 4.0 percent in 2022. The forecasts point to milder deficits than assumed by the Polish government and "reflect the agency's expectation that the allocation for budgeted economic support measures will not be fully utilised," Fitch wrote.
According to the agency, the general government debt should hit 59.2 percent at the end of this year and stabilise near this level in the next two years.
In September, Fitch downgraded Poland's 2020 GDP growth forecast to -3.5 percent from -3.2. percent. In 2021 the Polish GDP is seen to rebound to 4.5 percent, followed by 3.3-percent growth in 2022," according to the agency.
The agency also pointed out the current political uncertainty linked to disagreements within the ruling coalition. Still, early elections seem "unlikely" and no changes to fiscal or macro policy should be expected on that account.
Among three major rating agencies, Moody's is the author of Poland's highest rating on the A2. According to Fitch and S&P, Poland's rating is on the A-, also with a stable outlook. S&P will publish its new rating review for Poland on October 2.