Drop in business-sector employment in March to reach -1.4 pct y/y

According to a Polish Economic Institute forecast, the decline in employment in the business sector will amount to -1.4 percent year on year in March.

The most recent issue of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) Macroeconomics monthly shows that the drop in employment in the enterprise sector in February was much lower than market forecasts (1.7 percent).

However, writes the institute, in the coming months, the dynamics of the decline will improve and, in March, it will amount to -1.4 percent year on year.

"The improvement in March will be mainly statistical in nature. Due to last year's reduction in employment, we forecast a result close to 0.7 percentage points higher than in February," PIE analysts write.

They added that events related to the epidemic are expected to have a negative impact on the figures. The absence of workers that are in quarantine may result in a loss of working hours that corresponds to 15,000 full-time jobs, and this will lower total employment dynamics by 0.2 percentage points.

PIE analysts also pointed out that declines in employment related to absenteeism will be more frequent in April because, due to the closure of kindergartens, more people will benefit from care allowances, and some companies may also take advantage of downtime benefits from the government's financial shield.